Notre Dame and Penn State are set for the College Football Playoff Orange Bowl semifinal with a shot at the national title matchup on the line. Here’s the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical model that projects scores and picks winners.

The semifinals of the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff begin Thursday with a blockbuster Orange Bowl matchup between (6) Penn State and (7) Notre Dame. Both teams have leaned heavily on their defenses and run games to reach the doorstep of the College Football Playoff National Championship.

Penn State was unable to corral Oregon’s offense in the Big Ten Championship though, allowing 496 total yards while dropping a 45-37 decision to the then undefeated Ducks. The Nittany Lions eviscerated SMU in the first round of the CFP Playoff,